As part of the wider project examining options for redesign of emergency and unscheduled care for NHS across London, I prepared the detailed modelling (workforce, financial, business change).
This involved tackling the requirements from both ends and using two tools for triangulation:
how many people are coming forwards with what requirements, and what care pathways would it be possible to use
based on the current numbers of staff of each type and their competencies, how much would each pathway get used and what implications does that have for transition and for costs
MS Excel for dynamic steady state modelling year by year, forecasting activity, pathway use, requirements for staff and resource use, staff training required, staff in training
cross-referenced with Care Pathway Simulator (CPS) workflow modelling based on patients entering the system at random in line with the current peaks, troughs and cycles of patients through the 24 hr, week and seasons; confirming for different staff and competence mixes that the results would agree with those predicted by MS Excel models
The results of this study represented a blueprint for real change, and although only the conclusions formed part of Prof Darzi's review of Urgent and Emergency Care in London (part of "Reform for London"), individual organisations have based their training and planning on the detail